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"Everything should be made
as simple as possible,
but not simpler."
.....Albert Einstein
Latest: What the machines say now
DECEMBER 10, 2025 UPDATE: STEADY AS SHE GOES The models are unchanged and US equities are still over-weighted and returns have all recovered from the big drop at the end of last year. In spite of all the uncertainties, returns are now near or above long term averages. JUNE 16, 2025 UPDATE: WHAT JUST HAPPENED PART 2 The past few months have been a crazy and concerning period; on again, off again, on again tariffs, domestic challenges along with escalating middle east conf
52 min read
1. The Bucket List: What to invest in
This isn't a new idea. For any long term investor, diversification means building a portfolio with “buckets” that each contain a...
4 min read
2. Asset Allocation: How much in each bucket
Asset allocation answers the question of how much to put in each bucket. This is where things can get complicated, and if you listen to...
5 min read
3. Future Expectations: The decade of the 2020's
“Where did THAT number come from?” or, “How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb.” (Thanks Dr. Strangelove) The 1960's movie Dr....
5 min read
4. Now What: Not accepting a shrinking future
All that information didn't really answer anything. The long held view on investing is still sound advice; that one should stay...
3 min read
5. Learning Machines: Letting a machine help
A learning machine is like a savant. It can be really good at one particular task. So building a simple machine trained to help guide...
3 min read
6. Plans, Risks and Monte Carlo: Dealing with uncertainty
Previous articles have been focused on understanding broad market behavior and how best to deal with the uncertainties of what lies...
2 min read
7. Details: How expectations are set and InvestEngines learn
Lies, Damn Lies, Statistics and Learning Machines It is easy to be misled by numbers. So it is important to understand what is going on...
15 min read
8: Looking ahead with evolving learning machines
Predicting is a fool's errand and the view from 2020 is anything but certain. Some of the modeling of InvestEngines traverses almost 100...
5 min read
9. Lagniappe: A little something extra for the investor that fears a market drop
The rapid market swoon in 2020 as a result of the worldwide corona virus pandemic makes one wonder if there is any value in ever exiting...
3 min read
10. Climbing further out on a limb, or trying to predict the near term
In earlier articles regarding future expectations, it was clear that the 2020’s are likely to offer much lower long term average returns....
3 min read
11: Artificial Intelligence is growing and available as machine managed ETFs
A few startups (e.g. Equbot in 2017 and Qraft in 2016) are focused on using Artificial Intelligence (AI) to make investment choices and...
3 min read
12. Big Market Bottoms (and Tops)
It is impossible to spot a big market bottom until after the fact, but as of November 2022, it was clear we are still down the path to a...
6 min read
13. Running with Scissors
This is an "old" expression for taking unnecessary risks and a metaphor regarding the use of leverage. Its risky business. Leveraged...
4 min read
14: Where the Figawi in 2024
It’s January 2024 and time to see “where the figawi”, like the eponymous Hyannis-Nantucket sailboat race. As a sailor and investor, it...
12 min read
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